Electrification of the TransPennine route between Leeds and Manchester via Huddersfield has officially been ‘paused’.
Links here to a range of articles from the BBC, Manchester Evening News and Huddersfield Daily Examiner.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-33066581
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33270586
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33268484
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33286010
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33286270
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/electrification-manchester-leeds-rail-line-9526158
http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/what-next-electrification-transpennine-line-9526721
http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/electrification-transpennine-rail-line-delayed-9429319
This could be bad news, it could be good news, it could be a bit of both. “Pause” is one of those wonderfully flexible words which means different things to different people, which of course is why it was used.
Does it mean that the proposal is to be quietly abandoned when no-one’s looking? Or that the proposal is to be scaled back because it’s coming in at considerably above the original cost estimate? Or that the scope of the scheme, which SMART and SHRUG have consistently argued is too limited, is to be expanded? Or that something broadly similar will be done, just a bit later?
How long is a pause, and what happens at the end of the pause? Both those questions remain unresolved.
Into the distinguished pantheon of meaningless phrases must also go “Northern Powerhouse”, much talked of by George Osborne, lampooned now as “Northern Powercut”.
One thing it isn’t is a surprise. It has been common knowledge within the railway industry that the current electrification schemes are both late and over budget, for a range of reasons not least that there’s a shortage of suitably qualified engineers. It would be surprising if the Secretary of State was the only person in the industry to be unaware of this.
As a result, the current North-West electrification (Manchester/Liverpool/Blackpool triangle, plus Manchester-Stalybridge, is a bit behind schedule. The other scheme currently under construction, the Great Western main line London – Bristol/Cardiff/Swansea, is behind schedule and over budget. The next two schemes on the list were Trans Pennine (Stalybridge-Leeds-York) and the Midland Main Line (London to Sheffield for the uninitiated). There’s a certain logic towards concentrating limited expertise on the Great Western and before moving on to other routes. Of course the politics are such is it’s perceived as (1) not wanting to upset the Welsh government (2) a southern bias, and there may be some truth in this.
The real question is not whether or not the proposed Trans Pennine electrification should be “paused”, but what happens next. What “paused” really means may be yet to be determined.
Electrification, originally anticipated to be by 2018, was (amongst many other things) the key to allowing a half-hourly service at Mossley, Greenfield, Marsden & Slaithwaite. Now it’s not going to be 2018, and speculation is that it could be 2021, 2026 or never. Put as simply as possible, it’s not acceptable that we should have to wait until some unspecified date in the distant future for a half-hourly service. Waiting until 2018 or 2021 is one thing, waiting and hoping with no date is quite another.
It’s worth pointing out that above-inflation fare increases started in 2002, with the reason always being given that it’s needed for investment. Well, we’ve had the fare increases. As to the investment, it might finally be delivered 24 years later. Then again, it might not. Again, that’s unacceptable.
So in the short term the railway industry [a strange, many-headed beast, in which it’s impossible to find out who is really driving decisions. Whoever we meet, they insist it’s not them.] needs to find a way of delivering a half-hourly service to Mossley, Greenfield, Marsden & Slaithwaite. If that means running fewer but longer expresses to make more efficient use of capacity, then so be it. The rationale for six fast trains per hour between Manchester and Leeds never stood up to much scrutiny.
In the long term, electrification needs to take place but with other enhancements (resignalling, reopening the disused Standedge tunnels, reinstating four tracks wherever practicable) so that it’s not operating at capacity on day one. In other words, a properly thought through scheme which is fit for the next 40 years, not one which will be full on day one.
